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    储蓄率的小疑问

            起因在于看见吕兄的文章,吕兄洞察力着实让人佩服,但是有一点据在下的观察并非如此:

            中国的储蓄率已经是举世闻名的,美国也经常眼红这个事情,我们确实能看到中国“居民”因为社会保障的残坏而被迫储蓄,但是有一个问题就是居民储蓄占整个储蓄总额的比例最近在不停的下降(数据来源自中国人民银行的月度统计)。也就是说中国居民不花钱、爱储蓄就算是真的,但是越来越不是中国储蓄率居高不下的原因了。要想拉动消费,除了做好保障制度完善之外,让利与民恐怕是另外一个更加好的途径吧?

     

            愚见一坨,路过者得而人人戳之!

    Comments (2)

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    ma ivywrote:
    书不尽言,言不尽意。大概知道你想说什么。。。
    June 28
    Edmundwrote:
    既然傅兄如此高抬,那我就抛砖引玉,讲讲我看完之后的第一感受。首先:储蓄率降低不假,这也就是造成前几年楼市和股市火热的原因。究其背后原因,还是因为城镇居民普遍心理缺乏安全感,担心自己子女的教育,住房和养老问题。所以,完善保障制度能够给城镇居民提供一个消费的信心。其次,储蓄率降低并不见得资金全部投放到消费市场。目前的国有金融体系,可能还会制造更多的烂帐坏帐。最后,我很同意你的让利于民的观点。如果只是完善保障制度,并不一能全面启动国内的消费市场。这也是我在文中提到国内市场化改革的困境:以国有经济主导地位的经济,不仅不可能按照市场规律办事,反而会挤压私人资本的生存空间,造成金融远远落后经济发展需求的局面。再比如,投资渠道有限。如果中国开放外汇市场,一定有许多居民宁可买美元欧元,也不会去买股票和房子的。以上是我想到几点意见,仅供参考,欢迎指正。
    June 26

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